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Current Atlantic Satellite Loop
Current Pacific Satellite Loop
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 250528
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 25 Oct 2026 08:20:10 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 250546
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Oct 24 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Vance, located a few hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.
Western Central Pacific:
Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more organized in association
with a broad area of low pressure located near the International
Date Line, several hundred miles west of Johnston Atoll.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development over the
next few days, and a tropical depression could form during the early
part of next week while the system moves east-northeastward at 10 to
15 mph. By the middle of next week, however, strong upper-level
winds should limit any additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Summary for Hurricane Vance (EP2/EP222026)
...VANCE HOLDS STEADY WHILE DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 9:00 PM CST Sat Oct 24 the center of Vance was located near 13.7, -103.4 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
Hurricane Vance Public Advisory Number 15
Issued at 900 PM CST Sat Oct 24 2026 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 250244 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Vance Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 900 PM CST Sat Oct 24 2026 ...VANCE HOLDS STEADY WHILE DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 103.4W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Vance. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Vance was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 103.4 West. Vance is moving slowly toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Fluctuations in strength are likely through Monday, followed by steady weakening after that. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through next Thursday, Vance is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches with isolated higher totals around 10 inches across Colima and western portions of Michoacán and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Vance, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf. SURF: Swells generated by Vance will affect portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico into next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi
Hurricane Vance Forecast Advisory Number 15
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 25 2026 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 250244 TCMEP2 HURRICANE VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222026 0300 UTC SUN OCT 25 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 103.4W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. 4 M SEAS....210NE 210SE 210SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 103.4W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 103.3W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 14.2N 103.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.1N 104.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.6N 104.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.1N 104.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.5N 105.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.3N 105.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 18.4N 105.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 19.6N 106.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 103.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KATZ/CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Vance Forecast Discussion Number 15
Issued at 900 PM CST Sat Oct 24 2026 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 250245 TCDEP2 Hurricane Vance Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 900 PM CST Sat Oct 24 2026 Vance continues to look disorganized on satellite images, and it seems that southwesterly shear is keeping the convection displaced from the center. The hurricane is also moving over cool waters, which is also inhibiting intensification as well. GPM microwave images show that the structure of the cyclone is vertically tilted due to the aforementioned shear. Despite the system's ragged appearance, the Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB is still T5.0/90 kt while the objective intensity estimates are in the range of 68-81 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has been kept to 80 kt based on a combination of that data, however, it could be generous. The intensity forecast still has plenty of uncertainties. Vance is generally expected to weaken during the next 12 h due to the continuous of shear while it remains over cool SSTs. After that time, the hurricane's intensity could fluctuate when Vance moves over warmer waters, but the wind shear will likely remain elevated. After 48 h, the wind shear is expected to increase even further and that should result in a gradual weakening trend. It is possible that Vance could weaken more than forecast given the expected increasing shear and intrusions of dry air. The NHC intensity forecast is generally similar to the previous one with only a few minor adjustments made. The initial motion remains slowly north-northwestward or 340/4 kt. The cyclone is currently being steered by a weak low- to mid-level ridge over eastern Mexico, and it is moving toward a large mid-latitude trough over the western United States and northwestern Mexico. Vance should move into an area where the steering currents are light, thus the hurricane is expected to move even slower over the next few days. The latest guidance shifted significantly to the west compared to the previous forecast, including the highly skilled forecast aids HCCA and GDMI, which has added some uncertainty in the track forecast. The new track forecast was adjusted slightly to the west and is a little slower than the previous one. However, the current track is on the eastern side of the guidance envelope, and additional adjustments to the west could be needed. Key Messages: 1. Due to the uncertainties in both the track and intensity forecasts, it is too early to say what wind and storm surge impacts Vance may cause along the coast of Mexico. Interests in southwestern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of the hurricane. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with slow-moving Hurricane Vance will impact the western coast of Mexico from Michoacán to Jalisco during much of next week. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides across Colima and western portions of Michoacán and Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 13.7N 103.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 14.2N 103.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 15.1N 104.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 15.6N 104.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 16.1N 104.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 27/1200Z 16.5N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 17.3N 105.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 18.4N 105.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 19.6N 106.1W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi
Hurricane Vance Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 25 2026 000
FOPZ12 KNHC 250244
PWSEP2
HURRICANE VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222026
0300 UTC SUN OCT 25 2026
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
15N 105W 34 28 40(68) 3(71) 2(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74)
15N 105W 50 X 15(15) 7(22) 2(24) 1(25) 1(26) X(26)
15N 105W 64 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14) X(14)
$$
FORECASTER KATZ/CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Vance Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Oct 2026 03:22:49 GMT